The time for the NHL Draft lottery has been announced.
The Draft Lottery to determine the draft order will be held at 3:30pm Pacific tomorrow and will be televised on ESPN/ESPN+. The NHL Draft is June 28-29 in Las Vegas at the Sphere.
Unlike the NFL, the draft order isn’t determined strictly by worst-to-best in standings. And unlike the NBA, the draft lottery is unnecessarily convoluted.
How it works
There will be a drawing for the #1 overall pick. Teams eligible for the drawing are the 11 worst teams last year, by record. The odds of winning for each of the 11 teams are not equal.
Odds for the #1 overall pick:
- San Jose Sharks: 25.5%
- Chicago Blackhawks: 13.5%
- Anaheim Ducks: 11.5%
- Columbus Blue Jackets: 9.5%
- Montreal Canadiens: 8.5%
Arizona CoyotesUtah Hip-Hop Acid Rock: 7.5%- Ottawa Senators: 6.5%
- Seattle Kraken: 6.0%
- Calgary Flames: 5.0%
- New Jersey Devils: 3.5%
- Buffalo Sabres: 3.0%
So maybe the drawing didn’t go the way you wanted and you’re sad that you have to wait a whole year before seeing the results of ping pong balls put into a hopper. Well, good news for you because there will be a second drawing, this time for the 2nd overall pick.
Odds for the #2 overall pick:
- San Jose Sharks: 18.8%
- Chicago Blackhawks: 14.1%
- Anaheim Ducks: 11.2%
- Columbus Blue Jackets: 9.5%
- Montreal Canadiens: 8.6%
Arizona CoyotesUtah Psychadelic Funk Electronica: 7.7%- Ottawa Senators: 6.7%
- Seattle Kraken: 6.2%
- Calgary Flames: 5.2%
- New Jersey Devils: 3.7%
- Buffalo Sabres: 3.2%
A team can move up as many as 10 spots in the lottery, so there’s some chance that Seattle will get pushed down a spot or two. The total of Seattle’s lottery odds are:
- 1st overall: 6.0%
- 2nd overall: 6.2%
- 3rd overall: 0.2%
- 8th overall: 54.4%
- 9th overall: 30.0%
- 10th overall: 3.2%
It is not possible for them to pick 4-7th, nor worse than 10th.
The importance of a top-two pick:
If Seattle’s 12.2% of getting a top-two pick did come in, that would be a considerably better outcome based on historical results. At the very top of the draft, hockey scouting tends to be pretty efficient compared to other sports, and players taken that early in the draft have a much better chance of being immediate, high-impact players.
That’s not to say that getting a player 3-5 is a disaster by any means. It just usually takes longer for them to turn into stars when they do. Think of how Matty Beniers, the 2021 2nd overall pick, was able to play, but Shane Wright and Eduard Šalé, drafted later (4th and 20th respectively), needed more time to season before getting to the NHL.
The value of a top-two pick is huge. Thanks to both Evolving Hockey and Chace McCallum for this work.
To put the 6% chance of getting Celebrini in context, shuffle a deck of playing cards (remove the jokers beforehand). Draw two cards. If they are a pair, the Kraken get Celebrini.
Draft lotteries are high-leverage moments that can completely reshape a franchise’s trajectory. If the Kraken could get the #1 overall pick, they would be set up with an absolutely killer core of Beniers/Wright/Celebrini.
Leave a tip to support our writers and staff!